“Why take to the lifeboats if the solution is to throw the captain overboard? The problem for elected Republicans is that they can’t plan a leadership coup in the equivalent of a Dickson restaurant and then tap the leader on the shoulder. Presidential succession in the US is governed by a combination of constitutional provisions and federal statute,” writes columnist HUGH SELBY. 

My recent piece, Trump’s mission is himself, only himself, was followed by an American reader’s letter of anguish, who explained how he and other right-minded, Christian Americans had voted for the orange clown once or twice because he seemed honest and made them hopeful.  

Now they are so disenchanted that conversations dwell upon how soon the Almighty (or the Devil, I suppose) will solve the serious problem of an unfunny clown who is well past the biblical lifespan of three score years and ten.

Conversations of that sort are not caught as criminal offences.  

Wikipedia has an interesting overview of people who stepped close to, or over the line into criminal speech by wishing the president dead.

Two examples from that article show the fine lines of what’s okay and what’s not. In a 1971 interview, comedian Groucho Marx said: “I think the only hope this country has is Nixon’s assassination.” 

A senior US prosecutor opined: “It is one thing to say that ‘I … will kill Richard Nixon’ when you are the leader of an organisation which advocates killing people and overthrowing the government; it is quite another to utter the words which are attributed to Mr Marx, an alleged comedian”. No offence there, or then.

Four plus decades later, in 2017, Stephen Taubert was not so lucky. He phoned the office of a senator and said he was going to “hang” former President Obama.

At his sentencing in 2019, Taubert said: “I’m sorry for the offensive language. That’s all it was. It does get me upset when I listen to the news and they attack [President Trump]. He’s a good person and he’s done a lot for this country and the veterans.”  

After his sentencing, a senior US prosecutor noted: “Racist threats to kill… public officials are not protected free speech, but [are] serious crimes.”

Readers will clearly understand from the above that this writer is not advocating for the death of the present POTUS as a result of anything other than the natural course of life and death.

The above shouldn’t have to be stated, but given the past willingness of our national government to extradite Australians to the US, I am not taking any chances. I do not have the funds to deal with a politicised judiciary and prosecution service, or seek a presidential pardon.

Are the stakes getting higher?

Those readers who in 2026 still share Stephen Taubert’s admiration for Donnie’s opinions and leadership skills are warned to avoid what follows. 

His approval rating in the US is tanking.

Two thirds of those most recently polled say his policies have worsened the economy. Among Republicans his approval has dropped from 52 per cent at the start of this year to 43 per cent.

A majority of those polled say that he has overstepped his powers both for internal and external matters. It’s a slight majority, but it’s still over half.

Some 15 per cent of 2024 Trump voters regret that vote, a doubling in six months. 

The midterm elections are in the first week of November, seven months away. But the issues most concerning American voters, being cost of living, fuel prices, the overseas wars, and the violent rounding up of immigrants will not be resolved by then.

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives, and 33 Senate seats are in play in November.

Democrats only need to flip a few seats to have control of the House. If they do then they will gain the power to issue subpoenas as they investigate his administration, and they can block his legislative agenda. 

Watchers of serial political dramas on streaming services will find the live streaming from Congress too exciting to miss. 

Should the Democrats wrest control of the Senate, they could stop Trump from appointing nominees to cabinet positions and the federal judiciary, including the Supreme Court.  

A telltale sign of his standing with his supporters will be whether any of “his” six on the Supreme Court decide to go now, so that his new appointee or appointees can get Senate approval before the midterms.

Given his penchant for sacking cabinet members, this too raises interesting possibilities as he seeks to appoint replacements who will do his bidding. He may be faced with no approvals.

But never mind the polling statistics, what are the gamblers’ odds for the Republicans holding on at the midterms? As at Easter the betting markets have the Democrats as clear favourites to take control of the House; however, the Republicans still have an edge on retaining Senate control.

Another useful indicator is the ebb and flow of the tides of donations to the political parties. It is reported that individual donations to the Democrats are running strongly now.

However, against that, are the huge donations from billionaires to the Republican party that were made before the last presidential election, leaving that party with a gobsmacking war chest.

Loyalty begins at home

Which takes us to the Australian experience of how politicians behave when their political boat begins to founder.

Why take to the lifeboats if the solution is to throw the captain overboard?  Think of the succession of leaders of the Liberal Party after Howard was prime minister, up to the most recent upheaval. Loyalty, like charity, begins at home.

The problem for elected Republicans is that they can’t plan a leadership coup in the equivalent of a Dickson restaurant (a Canberra suburb) and then tap the leader on the shoulder.

Presidential succession in the US is governed by a combination of constitutional provisions and federal statute, primarily the Twenty-fifth Amendment to the Constitution (which formalises the vice-president succession. It also deals with temporary POTUS disability) and the Presidential Succession Act of 1947 (as amended to 2006). 

That sets out the succession beyond the vice-president. The start of the current succession sequence is:

• Vice-President (JD Vance)

• Speaker of the House (Mike Johnson)

• President pro tempore of the Senate (Chuck Grassley)

• Secretary of State (Marco Rubio)

The tantalising question is whether Donnie would abdicate if asked. Apparently, Vance’s average approval rating is now 39 per cent, with an average disapproval rating of 57 per cent.

Vance might consider those odds a poisoned chalice and prefer to put his efforts into a nomination fight.

Marco Rubio, number four on the list, sought unsuccessfully to be the presidential candidate in 2016. He supported Trump in 2020 and 2024. If Vance takes over from Trump before the 2028 election then Rubio’s hopes are lost.

The short point is that the courtiers around the emperor are trying to predict what is in their best interests. While the ship of state is facing ever heavier seas they are cabin bound, each striving to be the one that reaches shore safely and ahead of any rival.

Meanwhile, the emperor may be hurling “stone age” and profanity ridden epithets at the Iranians, but his supporters are more than capable of a profitable bit of insider trading on the stock exchanges, riding on his likely remarks.

Those who criticise this man had best remember his ability to ride out a succession of business, taxation and personal storms.

He is, at heart, a New Yorker and therefore, inscribed upon his core is this message: “Keep your eyes upon the donut, not upon the hole”. That is sufficient inspiration to stay in power, to wring every last advantage, and every last dollar, until January 2029.

Some might say that the business of America is business, but the business of the POTUS is himself.

What do the Democrats want?

Suppose that the Democrats win both the House and the Senate in the midterms, would they impeach Donnie?

Suppose that they do impeach him and force his removal, then Vice-President Vance becomes president with a two-year grace period to clean out the stables and secure the Republican nomination.

Better to leave the clown upon the stage, likely – if this past few weeks have been a guide – to sound more and more frequently like an unchristian, drunken sailor.

The Republicans may be wishing for a return to that golden age when the enemy could be tricked for months by the use of a Kagemusha, a look alike for the indisposed, even dead, ruler.

Meantime, it’s been more than a year since the orange clown became president. There is no coherent message of a vision for America coming from the Democrats.

Make America Great Again may have morphed into Morons are Governing America, but if the Democrats are to govern then they ought to tell us all how they will do so. 

Is there a man or woman among them with the leadership qualities of Franklin Delano Roosevelt, a person who can bring a New Deal to the US in 2029?

Hugh Selby is the CityNews legal affairs columnist. 

Trump’s mission is himself, only himself