The ACT government’s large-scale feed-in tariff (LFiT) scheme is driving most of the proposed 17 per cent price electricity increase for 2024-25.

And even then, Senior Commissioner Joe Dimasi says the Independent Competition and Regulatory Commission has a “low level of confidence in these estimates due to the number of cost inputs to be finalised ahead of our final decision in May.”

“Based on data up to 30 November 2023, it is estimated that customers on ActewAGL’s regulated (standing offer) tariffs could see average price increases of approximately 17 per cent (or 12 per cent excluding inflation) in 2024-25”, he said.

“Last year, the [LFiT] scheme resulted in a rebate to ACT consumers, protecting them from the large increases in electricity prices experienced in other jurisdictions. In 2024-25, the commission estimates that the scheme will incur an overall cost, which will be passed on to consumers.

“The regulation only applies to standing offer tariffs. Market offers tend to be much lower and our analysis shows that increased competition in the ACT can deliver substantial benefits to customers that regularly shop around for their electricity plan, including checking with other retailers.

“A customer could save up to $700 per year by moving from a standing offer to the lowest market offer.

“Despite the indicative increase in regulated electricity prices, we expect the average bill for Canberrans on standing offers will be lower than average standing offer bills in Victoria, NSW, SA and Queensland.

“The expected price increase is our best estimate at this point in time and our final decision will be based on updated data. The updates will include the ACT government’s decision on the LFiT scheme cost for 2024-25, which could be significantly different to the placeholder estimate in our draft decision.”

The draft report is open for comment until February 29. The commission will hold a public hearing on the draft report at 10am on February 7 at Level 2, Canberra Nara Centre, 3 Constitution Avenue,Civic.