“Despite its efforts to diversify the economy, the ACT Government’s primary role is to manage population growth generated by the policies of other governments,” writes planning columnist MIKE QUIRK.

We frequently hear references to Canberra’s population exceeding 800,000 by 2065, a growth of more than 7900 a year.

The source of this estimate is the government’s ACT Population Projections 2025 to 2065. But such statements should be treated with considerable caution as it is difficult to estimate what is happening next year, let alone the next 40 years.

To highlight that, in 2020 and 2021 the covid pandemic led to negative net overseas migration (NOM) and an increased level of net interstate migration (NIM). In 2023, 2024 and 2025 there was significant negative NIM.

During 2025, the ABS estimated the ACT’s population increased by 6033 to 487,200 of which 2836 was from natural increase (births less deaths), 4738 from NOM and a 1541 outflow from NIM.

While the greatest uncertainty is estimating the level of migration, the assumption that the total fertility rate (TFR – the number of children a woman could expect to have in her lifetime) will trend downward for several years before stabilising around 1.31, could be a little high as the ACT’s TFR in 2024 was 1.27 having fallen from 1.74 in 2014.

The projection assumes the Territory will be a destination of choice for increasing numbers of Australians and overseas arrivals. Migration is difficult to predict as it is influenced by a large number of factors including the number of returning migrants, international students and working holiday makers; the job vacancies available, the increasing availability of remote work and the policies of federal and overseas governments. 

Migration could fall from a federal government decision to cut the public service as occurred under Fraser and in the first Howard government; a continuing reduction in the proportion of APS jobs in the ACT (it fell from 38.2 per cent in 2015 to 35.4 per cent in 2024-25) and the greater flexibility in working arrangements, which are enabling people to work elsewhere while their job is nominally in the ACT.

International migration to the ACT (and to Australia) could fall in response to cuts in the federal government’s migration program. The supply of international migrants in the medium term could also fall as countries in Asia and elsewhere limit emigration in order to retain skilled workers to prevent further ageing and address population decline caused by plunging fertility; and from improved local education facilities. 

In response, Australian governments will have to substantially increase skills training to address labour shortages in areas including, construction, information technology health and aged care.

Some economists argue higher overseas migration delivers greater revenues and economic activity than the energy demands and the health, education, housing and infrastructure costs it generates; that it is needed to overcome the challenges of a falling and ageing population including fewer workers and consumers to drive economic growth and innovation. 

However, a lower level of growth could reduce the environmental and economic consequences of climate change, which include an increased intensity of floods, fires and droughts. A drying climate could call into question the adequacy of the Territory’s water resources to accommodate the projected population. 

The effect of ‘affluenza’ on our carbon footprint

Our high carbon footprint has been increased by what has been called “affluenza”, characterised by high consumption of resources and energy. Our national footprint would be reduced by the increased use of renewable energy and removing incentives that encourage the construction of large, resource and energy intensive houses (there is no capital gains tax on the family home) and the use of large SUVs. 

Despite its efforts to diversify the economy, the ACT Government’s primary role is to manage population growth generated by the policies of other governments.

Given the level of uncertainty, the benefits of the projections in the planning of infrastructure and services beyond five to 10 years are limited. Its current policies will assist in achieving a lower carbon footprint, but need review to ensure they are the best use of the funds available, meet housing preferences and whether the inter-town public transport task could be more effectively met by bus rapid transport. 

Barry Jones, science minister in the Hawke government, observed that a politician who thinks beyond the next election is viewed as a long-term thinker. The assumptions in the projections represent a business-as-usual approach.

To demonstrate it has the flexibility and capacity to respond to uncertainty, it would be prudent for the ACT government to explore the economic and environmental implications (including the consequences of a more rapidly ageing population) of a growth scenario of fewer than 5000 people a year. 

Mike Quirk is a former NCDC and ACT government planner. 

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