Homebuilding in the ACT is forecast to fall 15 per cent over the next five years, with Master Builders predicting the territory will fall about 2550 homes short of its National Housing Accord target.

Master Builders ACT expects 18,310 new homes to start construction over the five years to 2030-31, an average of 3660 a year and 15 per cent fewer than during the previous five years.

CEO Anna Neelagama says the ACT has already recorded a 1530-home shortfall since the Housing Accord began in July 2024.

“This represents a 15 per cent decline in new home starts compared with the previous five years and is a significant downgrade on previous forecasts,” she says.

Master Builders attributes the weaker outlook to federal tax policy changes, the threat of higher interest rates, geopolitical instability and rising construction costs. It says the cost of building a new ACT house is now 52.9 per cent higher than before the pandemic.

The forecasts are brighter for non-residential construction, with an average $1.35 billion of work expected annually over the five years to 2030-31, up 1.6 per cent on the previous five years.

However, Master Builders says much of that activity is tied to large projects that local small and medium-sized businesses struggle to access.

The organisation is calling on the ACT and federal governments to reduce regulatory barriers and improve conditions for housing construction.

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