“With identification being weak though, no one is that safe in Canberra at the next election. But it also means there is opportunity for a true centre-left party like Opportunity,” writes political columnist ANDREW HUGHES.

As 2026 heads towards the final third of the year there are two elections left of interest to those in politics in Australia.

Both fall on the same day – November 7. That night I’ll be in my finest lounge attire tuned in to see how each goes. 

The Victorian state election will be the most significant test yet for the reinvigorated One Nation. Can they take enough lower house seats to stake a claim for an alliance with the other conservative parties and perhaps even a seat in government? Or perhaps Labor under Ben Carroll can survive through minority government? It literally is too close to call right now. 

The other election is not in Australia. It is in NZ. The polls there are predicting a hung parliament, which could mean a second election if no one is able to secure a majority. The last negotiations there took three weeks, so it will be a marathon and not a sprint on deciding who governs. 

The other interesting thing though about the NZ election is why they could be heading towards a hung parliament. And that is the rise of the Opportunity Party, literally the Teals of NZ. But a party. 

One look at their website (opportunity.org.nz) and it is not hard to see why they have come from the clouds to get around 10 per cent of the vote: a charismatic but Gen-Y leader, centre-left policy platform clearly explained, and plain-speaking and well put together comms.
As NZ runs a proportional system with a five per cent threshold that means they stand to get the balance of power. I can hear the editor saying, yes, Andrew, but how does that impact someone here? 

Our system in the ACT is ripe for Opportunity. There is no doubt disenchantment with the major parties, but if you look at research such as the Australian Electoral Studies trust overall in our system is failing. 

That means identification is also weaker because it takes us longer to trust a party. So anyone new to the system will need to work hard to keep that trust. 

There are now three independents in the Assembly and each is very much aware of this. A much re-energised Leanne Castley says she’s relishing being independent, so each is working hard. No bored text-message sending here. 

With identification being weak though, no one is that safe in Canberra at the next election. But it also means there is opportunity for a party like Opportunity. A true centre-left party, the third (centre) way I discussed recently. 

The independents’ greatest strength, not being a party, is also their greatest weakness. 

It means uncertainty on policy positions in the voters mind. Being a party means identification with an ideology, and that means for a voter not that engaged with politics locally an easier way to differentiate brands. 

While the independent brand is strong, it also raises questions on what each independent stands for. Fiona Carrick’s strategy here is one way around this: very much local-area focused first, Territory-wide second. 

But if you want to be seen as a contender and rival for the majors in terms of governing or being part of governing, and therefore winning more than one seat, then what Opportunity is doing is probably going to be a more effective strategy. 

I remember asking Thomas Emerson on 2CC’s CityNews Sunday Roast program after the last election if he worried about something like this happening. His reply, not verbatim, was no and, in fact, it would be good for our system. 

But I wonder if voters of the ACT feel the same way. I think this is where certainty comes into the equation. Politics in the minds of many who may only switch on to it on polling day, is becoming a set-and-forget model. 

We may not trust those in the system, but we do trust and expect the system to act with a significant degree of certainty and stability. To know that if we flick the switch on the kettle, it’s going to work. 

There is no reason why we won’t see an Opportunity-style party in Canberra. And with identification weakening, perhaps we will see in the coming years dramatic shake ups locally that could see no one rule, but I feel uncertainty is something many of us don’t particularly embrace that well.

It will be interesting to see how One Nation’s gain of seats at state levels will play into this as well. Will we truly embrace a fluid political market or will we run back to perceived safety of the majors? 

But could it be that what we may be seeing is just another chapter in the struggle between opportunists and those who want Opportunity.

Dr Andrew Hughes lectures at the ANU Research School of Management, where he specialises in political marketing. 

News all day, every day at CityNewsQBN.com.au.