“It is uncertain how many dwellings will be provided under Minister Chris Steel’s new planning reforms, but it is likely to be modest,” writes MIKE QUIRK.

Increasing housing choice, by amending the Territory Plan to accommodate “missing middle” development, will only eventuate if the dwellings are affordable to an increased number of households. 

It is uncertain how many dwellings will be provided under Minister Chris Steel’s new planning reforms, but it is likely to be modest.

In the lower-density RZ1 area and RZ2 area (found adjacent shopping centres) residential subdivision and block consolidation will be permitted and in RZ2 areas missing middle homes of up to three storeys (plus an attic) will be permitted.

In recent times, high interest rates and labour and supply shortages, compounded by high population growth, have been major factors contributing to an inadequate supply of housing. 

How many owners of RZ1 blocks will take up the opportunities to unit title and subdivide? What will be the demand for higher density dwellings in RZ2 areas?

Missing middle projects will continue to have a lower scope for construction efficiencies than higher-density projects reducing their ability to be affordable to a wider range of households. 

The challenge in delivering improved housing outcomes is illustrated by the limited success of the Joint Venture for More Affordable Housing undertaken in the 1980s and early 1990s.

It aimed to reduce the cost of new housing through land development innovations including smaller blocks, narrower roads and common trenching of services.

To adequately increase housing choice, supply and affordability requires greater action than tweaking planning regulations. 

They include: 

• As the market fails to deliver anywhere near the level of housing required by groups in housing stress, greatly increased construction of social and community housing is needed. The government has to vastly improve its performance as it has not increased the number of social housing dwellings since 2012 despite Canberra’s population growing by 100,000; 

• Increasing the supply of land for detached housing. Restrictions on the supply of detached dwellings contributed to the 91 per cent increase in the price of separate houses compared to 48 per cent for other dwellings between 2010 and 2024. Since then the Indicative Land Release Program 2025-26 to 2029-30 increased the multi-unit dwellings share of releases to 90 per cent. The irony is the environment benefits of the policy have been diminished by car-dependant sprawl in surrounding NSW;

• Greater emphasis on the dispersal of employment (and resisting proposals to re-centralise employment) and improving transport infrastructure to increase the number of well-located properties and to improve the utilisation of infrastructure;

• Increased use of the leasehold system to set development conditions and use of lease variation charge and inclusionary zoning discounts to facilitate the provision of affordable housing; consider the benefits of pre-fabricated housing.

The upcoming census will provide an opportunity to obtain data to better understand the factors influencing housing choice including the interactions between household type, dwelling type, transport choices and car parking demand.

The information base would be strengthened if a parallel housing choices survey was undertaken to more fully interrogate the issues including the trade-offs a household would be willing to make to occupy a higher-density dwelling in high-accessibility/high-land value locations. 

Will the government take the opportunity to base its future decisions on evidence, not opinion, to avoid a repeat of the light rail boondoggle and the excessive restrictions on the release of land for detached dwellings?

Mike Quirk is a former NCDC and ACT government planner.