“It is hard, very hard, here in Canberra to get elected even if your leader, candidates, policies and campaign are all decent.” Political columnist ANDREW HUGHES can’t see much future for One Nation in Canberra, but he’s not saying never.

One of the big questions from the South Australian election is could One Nation get the same number of votes in Canberra? 

ACT Labor seemed to be worried. There was not one but two senior ACT Labor leaders, Andrew Barr and Andrew Leigh, on the Monday after trying to raise fear that it could.

Leigh’s ad though seemed to have a touch of AI to it, and when posted on X likely didn’t get the response hoped for but, hey, social media, right? 

So are their fears warranted locally? No, but One Nation might have an influence in 2028 if luck and strategy go their way. 

Here are three reasons why I think they won’t do that well. 

• Us

Canberra is perhaps the most progressive area in the nation politically. Marriage equality? Resounding yes. The Voice? The only yes. Government? We have voted in a majority of parliamentarians for decades now from Labor and the Greens. They’ve been joined by two  progressive independents. The Liberals dominant faction is moderate progressive. 

Then there’s our way of life. Trading hours are the envy of those in some of the bigger states such as SA. An education system with colleges and a large public service. 

We are one of the most diverse places in Australia, home to scores of embassies and consulates, and with students who travel from all corners of the globe to study at our universities.

Sure, not all feel the love of this, but elections and issue-based referendum results say that’s only a minority. A minority that’s likely split on who they identify with at the ballot box.

This has made it hard for One Nation to establish any sort of foothold here. You need a base to survive and compete as a political party. That base comes from us. And most of us are in the base of someone else right now. It can change, but in Canberra it is likely to be more of a change from one progressive party to another progressive party. 

• Who we want to represent us

So if One Nation were to do well, where would that be in the ACT? Where could a leader get resonance and momentum enough to make a difference? Inner-urban areas are out as those areas are now becoming three-way tussles between Labor, the Greens and the emerging independents. 

So maybe the middle-ring areas of Belconnen and Woden? No, Labor and the Liberals take the lion’s share there, and the Greens and independents are likely to go down to the wire in 2028 for the last spots as happened in 2024. 

That leaves the outer areas of Canberra. Outer areas are drifting to One Nation if the numbers from SA can be extrapolated here. BUT can or should they?

The fear Labor is expressing locally is that they may no longer finish above the Liberals in seat count with One Nation in the field due to preference flows. One Nation won’t be just to blame for that, performance in government will be the main culprit.   

Could we see an effective One Nation leader in a progressive city? Possibly. A more modern, palatable leader like the far-right parties have in Italy, France, and Germany could change that story. But there is no sign yet of that person emerging here. 

• History

Past behaviour can be an indicator of future behaviour. But as a marketer, I know that’s what it is – an indicator, but not necessarily a predictor. SA has shown that. Current polling also says that. 

Then there’s our system. The Independents for Canberra had a significant campaign in 2024, worked tirelessly in many parts of Canberra. The result? One person elected. 

Fiona Carrick will tell you about the hard work she had to do, the painful lessons learnt from prior defeats, before getting to the Assembly. 

It is hard, very hard, here in Canberra to get elected even if your leader, candidates, policies and campaign are all decent. Our closest system in Australia, Tasmania, has a similar history. 

Should One Nation be ignored by our parties then? No way! Not in the dynamic context of the 2020s. Yes, so much can change quickly, but some things do take time. But if the 2020s are teaching us anything, surprises can happen. 

Dr Andrew Hughes lectures at the ANU Research School of Management, where he specialises in political marketing.