Nationals Leader Matt Canavan gives a morning TV interview in Griffith, NSW. Photo: Facebook
It’s a chilly campaign for Nationals leader Matt Canavan in Farrer, writes political columnist MICHELLE GRATTAN.
Nationals leader Matt Canavan is giving the concept of the political “ground game” a new twist in the Farrer byelection.
Michelle Grattan.
Canavan is literally camping out in the southern NSW electorate, despite the Nationals seemingly having no chance of victory on May 9, when the tussle is set to be between One Nation and independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe.
After spending a couple of nights camping earlier, last Saturday night saw Canavan in his swag at Hay, then at Griffith on Sunday and Monday nights.
With overnight temperatures around zero, he’s had to upgrade his sleeping bag – the old one was only suited to the benign temperatures of his home state of Queensland – and get a semi-tent structure for more protection.
Canavan says he sets up in caravan parks so he can shower and shave – as he says, on the campaign trail you have to look respectable in the morning.
He has a political metaphor for camping out. “Opposition should be uncomfortable,” he says. “[This says opposition] is not a permanent residence.”
Nationals candidate Brad Robertson is not sharing the camping experience.
Despite needing a miracle, Canavan refuses to write off the Nationals’ chances. With the vote on the right splitting between One Nation, the Liberals, the Nationals and micro candidates, Canavan says there is always the chance of coming up through the middle.
A uComms poll done for Milthorpe on April 9-10 showed One Nation’s David Farley leading her by a whisker, 30.9 per cent to 30.0 per cent, on primary votes.
The electorate-wide poll of 1116 people, with an error margin of about 3 per cent, had the Liberals’ Raissa Butkowski on 16.1 per cent and the Nationals’ Brad Robertson polling 7.1 per cent.
One Nation leads Milthorpe in the estimated two-candidate preferred vote 52.7-47.3 per cent, based on respondents’ preferences.
The results show the dramatic extent to which the voters have deserted the Liberals. Asked how they voted last election, 41.4 per cent said they voted for the Liberals’ Sussan Ley (her actual vote was 43.4 per cent), while 23.1 per cent said they voted for Milthorpe (her actual vote was 20 per cent). Only 13 per cent said they voted last time for One Nation. Some are misremembering – in fact One Nation received only 6.6 per cent at the 2025 election.
People were also asked for their opinion of Donald Trump. Half (50.7 per cent) had a “very unfavourable” opinion, with another 9.8 per cent having an “unfavourable” opinion. Only 11.4 per cent had a very favourable view of Trump and another 13.2 per cent had a favourable opinion.
One Nation supporters were much more likely than average to have a favourable (26.6 per cent) or very favourable (24.6 per cent) attitude to Trump.
Meanwhile, GetUp is launching an advertising campaign against One Nation in the electorate. It has produced a TV ad called Trump’s War, showing “the links between Trump and [Pauline] Hanson in light of the recent fuel crisis”.
Appealing for funds to finance the ad campaign, which will also include digital ads “targeted at the persuadable voters who will decide the race”, and billboards, GetUp said: “If One Nation wins Farrer, it will be a huge boost to their momentum and could change the political map of this country”.
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