Two new federal polls by DemosAU and Fox & Hedgehog have the combined primary vote for Labor and the Greens dropping as One Nation continues to surge. There’s no sign of a boost for the Coalition from Angus Taylor replacing Sussan Ley.

At the 2025 federal election, the combined primary vote share for Labor and the Greens was 46.8%, while the combined share for the Coalition, One Nation and Trumpet of Patriots was 40.1%. In the two polls below, the total right vote is 49% and the total left vote 41-42%.

A national DemosAU poll for Capital Brief, conducted February 16-20 from a sample of 1551, gave Labor 29% of the primary vote (down one since a mid-January DemosAU poll), One Nation 28% (up four), the Coalition 21% (steady), the Greens 12% (down one) and all Others 10% (down two).

No two-party estimate was given, but seat projections had Labor winning 76-85 of the 150 House of Representatives seats, still enough for a majority but down from 87-95 in January. One Nation was winning 43-54 seats, up from 29-38, the Coalition 9-20 (10-22 previously), the Greens an unchanged 0-2 and all Others 3-7 (6-11 previously).

Anthony Albanese’s net positive rating was down three points to -17, with 46% giving him a negative rating and 29% positive. Taylor’s initial net positive was -4 (28% negative, 24% positive), up 14 points on Ley. Pauline Hanson’s net positive improved four points to -1 (38% negative, 37% positive).

In a three-way preferred PM question, Albanese led with 37% (down two), followed by Hanson at 25% (down one) and Taylor at 19% (up three from Ley).

Cost of living was rated the most important issue by 45%, followed by housing at 18% and immigration at 13%. Respondents were asked which of Labor, the Greens, One Nation or the Coalition were best for various issues.

Combining One Nation and the Coalition against the combined Labor and Greens gives the right a 44-32 lead over the left on cost of living, a 41-32 lead on housing and a 53-26 lead on immigration.

Fox & Hedgehog poll: Labor down to 51-49 lead

A national Fox & Hedgehog poll for the News Corp papers, conducted February 17-19 from a sample of 1625, gave Labor 30% of the primary vote (up one since an early January Fox & Hedgehog poll), One Nation 25% (up four), the Coalition 24% (down one), the Greens 12% (down two) and all Others 9% (down two).

In a “three party preferred”, where Greens and Other voters are asked which of Labor, One Nation or the Coalition they prefer, Labor had 44% (down two), One Nation 29% (up four) and the Coalition 27% (down two). Respondent preferences gave Labor just a 51-49 lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition. Labor led One Nation by 53-47, a three-point gain for One Nation.

Albanese’s net approval was an unchanged -15 (47% disapprove, 32% approve). Taylor’s initial net approval was +3 (26% approve, 23% disapprove) (Ley’s net approval was -13). Albanese led Taylor by 40-35 as preferred PM (39-31 vs Ley). Hanson’s net approval was up 12 points to +9 (44% approve, 35% disapprove).

On reducing the capital gains tax discount, 35% both supported and opposed. By 59–17, respondents supported an immigration ban from “high risk” areas. By 64–15, respondents did not think “ISIS brides” should be allowed to return to Australia.

Adrian Beaumont is election analyst (psephologist) at The Conversation and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne. Republished from The Conversation.