By Kat Wong and Maeve Bannister in Sydney

Voters are taking to the polls in Kiama on the NSW south coast, as Labor, Liberal and independent candidates battle it out for the seat. 

The by-election is being held on Saturday to pick a replacement for former MP Gareth Ward, convicted of sexual and indecent assault in July.

Before the then-Liberal MP won the seat in 2011, Labor had held it for the three decades from its re-establishment, putting the party in a good position to wrench the electorate back.

It will be the first major electoral test for the Labor government, which has backed Katelin McInerney for the seat.

Premier Chris Minns said it was up to the voters to choose who they wanted to represent them in parliament, but Ms McInerney had run a great campaign.

“If past performance is any indication of the future, voters can look at the last five weeks and see someone who doesn’t give up,” he told reporters on Saturday.

“Someone who is prepared to continue to fight, to make the case, to stand up for the local community, like somebody who has been born in this community and raised her family here would do.”

With 13 candidates vying for people’s votes, Labor seems to be in the “box seat” in the race, election analyst Ben Raue told AAP.

It’s unusual for a government to gain a seat in a by-election, but Mr Raue believes Labor has more incentive to work harder for the victory.

Kiama will not push NSW Labor out of minority government, but a win would put the party one step closer to majority power when the 2027 contest comes around.

Though that does not mean the coalition is out of the running.

Conservative voters who were split between Ward – who turned independent after being dumped by the Liberals – and the coalition’s candidate at the 2023 election, could unite behind Liberal Serena Copley candidate on Saturday, Mr Raue said.

The stakes are arguably higher for state Opposition Leader Mark Speakman, whose fate as party boss could be decided by the south coast voters.

Asked if his leadership would survive a loss, Mr Speakman batted away the speculation.

“We are the underdogs,” he told reporters in Kiama on Friday.

“I will be the leader. I will continue to be the leader.

“Tomorrow, it’s about the best representative for Kiama… it’s about electing someone who will take the toughest fight up to the government.”

Ward resigned in August after he was convicted for sexual and indecent assault in July and he is due to be sentenced next week.

Though Ward maintained a significant personal vote at the previous election, Mr Minns said Saturday’s by-election would rule a line under the disgraced MP’s time in office.

“Now it’s about turning the page,” he said.