“Chief Minister Andrew Barr and Labor need to be more careful because the reality gaps are growing – in the economy, health, education, crime, small business, MyWay+, trams, a stadium…,” says political columnist ANDREW HUGHES.

Perceptions matter a lot in politics. One of the biggest ways perceptions matter is that they inform the reality gap. 

What is the reality gap? Simply, the gap between our perception and our reality. 

The reality gap directly impacts our trust and confidence in the politician or party. That lack of trust and confidence means we are less likely to listen to messages from them, which then means they fail to get the engagement and cut-through necessary to be competitive. 

The bigger the gap, the longer and harder it is to close it, and the easier for a smart and strategic party to walk through it if they have theirs under control. 

For most of us we have a rough flexible range on where that gap should sit. For example, an issue-based gap might be public transport. A late bus now and again is par for the course, so if a politician says we have reliable public transport, even though the last time they actually got on a bus was on a school excursion, then we’ll likely believe them based on our reality. 

But, if there is a difference, let’s say Chris Steel saying that there is nothing wrong with MyWay+ when there is from the user perspective. Then there’s an issue gap. His credibility takes a hit. 

But issue-based gaps feed into overall gaps, which impacts that of the party and government. If there starts to open too many issue-based reality gaps, then the government starts to have dramas on the overall gap.

That is, it is no longer effective, we lose trust and faith in it and, boom, no matter how much it tries to convince us that the perception is reality, we know different. 

This is where Chief Minister Andrew Barr and Labor need to be more careful because the gaps are growing.

Examples? The economy is under control in the ACT is the constant message. Yet reality is the Saul Eslake report. And the credit rating of AA, the same as debt ridden Victoria. Or the columns in this publication by Jon Stanhope and Khalid Ahmed. 

But the reality at the street level is what’s really doing the damage for ACT Labor. We are a city of small and medium-sized enterprises and they are doing it tough, even accounting for the national cost-of-living dramas. Many I know are doing second gigs to get through and feel the government isn’t listening to them, symbolically represented by the London Circuit works. 

Other gaps are starting to open up on issues. Canberra Stadium is one. Light rail Stage 2B to Woden should be shelved in favour of a new or re-developed Canberra Stadium. 

A new stadium is not going to make money. Stadiums in most places don’t. Just ask Tasmania. That is reality. 

But to us, perceptions of being a city, and not a town, matter. A new stadium means so much more from a cultural and societal perspective. Concerts, events, culture, vibe, a gathering place for us. 

Then there are the other issues emerging as gaps. Health? Health has always been there but so many now sadly accept the system for what it is, so the gap isn’t as big. Same for education, with recent NAPLAN scores underpinning the need for overhauls and investment. 

Crime is rising in gap size. Despite numerous Labor ministers saying the recent release of crime statistics showing a fall in crime rates, for many our reality is different. More stories of minor crime going unreported, or if reported, taking months to get any resolution. Just because a crime is minor also does not mean it has major consequences for the victims of it. This grows the gap. 

The sheer number of growing reality gaps are changing our voting choices. More and more of us are growing wearisome of the perception marketing being done by political brands when reality is completely different. 

It isn’t just One Nation benefitting from this. Independents, Greens, and other minor parties are all picking up votes. We are now seeing consistent polls from different polling companies that show more than half of us no longer have as our first preference either Labor or Liberal. At the start of this decade that wasn’t even close to being so. 

In the age of digital and social media, perceptions matter. But so does demonstrating that political reality matches suburban reality. And in 2026 so few parties are showing us they have that gap closed.

Dr Andrew Hughes lectures at the ANU Research School of Management, where he specialises in political marketing.