“Since the mid 1980s there have been several proposals for high-speed rail linking the east coast capitals. All have been derailed on the issue of cost,” writes planning columnist MIKE QUIRK.

The latest high-speed rail (HSR) proposal, Newcastle-Sydney-Western Sydney Airport, is the first stage of an HSR linking Brisbane, Sydney, Canberra and Melbourne. Will the proposal suffer the fate of its predecessors?

The business case, prepared by the High Speed Rail Authority (HSRA) estimates the project will cost $93 billion and over the next 50 years will generate some $250 billion for the economy, produce 99,000 jobs, cut travel time from Sydney to Newcastle from two-and-a-half hours to one hour and improve housing affordability by facilitating increased demand and supply of housing in Newcastle, Lake Macquarie and the Central Coast.

Infrastructure Australia (IA) is supportive of the project’s potential to deliver economic benefits and to increase the quality of life from increased productivity, tourism, access to housing, education and health services. 

However, it has identified issues needing further assessment including whether the housing estimates can be delivered given labour and resource constraints; further justification of housing and employment benefits and costs, its constructability (the 194km first stage Newcastle-to-Sydney requires 114km of tunnels and 41km of viaducts); the travel-time savings; the environmental impacts; the impact on travel patterns and travel choices and an investigation of the funding strategy. 

A decision about the project’s future is expected in 2028. If approved, it could be operating from Newcastle to Sydney Central by 2039 and to the Western Sydney Airport by 2042. Under this timetable it would be surprising to see HSR arriving in Canberra before 2050. 

Its development will almost certainly be funded through a public-private partnership (PPP) to leverage private sector expertise and capital.

PPPs are not without risk and a number have failed primarily from an underestimation of risk, poor contract management stemming from inadequate skills within the bureaucracy, an undue focus on cost minimisation rather than best value, higher than expected construction costs or overestimates of patronage. Examples include the Sydney light rail, Cross City and Lane Cove tunnels.

The Commonwealth has provided initial funding of $660 million for the business case, design, planning and environmental approvals for the Sydney-to-Newcastle HSR stage. The level of funding reflects an attempt to de-risk the project.

Any assessment should demonstrate HSR is a better use of funds than alternatives including the provision of providing light rail, bus rapid transit and comprehensive cycling networks in major cities; funding the construction of social and affordable housing; funding health, schools, libraries, recreation and cultural facilities.

Given it could be decades (if ever) before HSR serves Canberra, consideration needs to be given to more immediate transport needs. 

Projects far exceed the infrastructure funds available

IA’s two-to-four-year infrastructure priority list identifies upgrades of the existing Canberra-to-Sydney railway to increase capacity and reduce travel times. The number of projects on the priority list far exceeds the infrastructure funds available.

ACT Chief Minister Andrew Barr supports improving the existing Canberra-to-Sydney line with the aim of cutting the trip from more than four hours to three hours, which he says was achievable for less than a billion dollars and would make it a genuine low-carbon alternative to driving or flying.

The ACT has formed a working group with the NSW government to investigate possible improvements to the Sydney-to-Canberra railway line and has proposed that feasibility work be jointly funded by both jurisdictions and the Commonwealth.

Once the HSR is developed, the Canberra-to-Goulburn section could become redundant. The potential redundancy should be considered in determining investment priorities as should the viability and timing of HSR.

While the HSRA has yet to finalise the alignment of the Sydney-to-Melbourne corridor, a major component is likely to be a spur line connecting the Sydney-to-Melbourne HSR alignment to Canberra Airport, similar to that identified in the 2013 High Speed Rail Feasibility Study and by Fastrack Australia in 2023. Travel time between Sydney and Canberra is estimated to be 60 to 90 minutes.

A priority should be to acquire land along the HSR alignment to capture future land value increases and reduce construction costs. 

Fastrack Australia outlined how the HSR could be a catalyst of regional growth, stimulating residential development around Sutton, Gundaroo, Gunning, Yass and Goulburn. 

It also suggested Canberra’s light rail network be extended to the airport; and the existing railway alignment from Queanbeyan and Bungendore be converted to light rail, which would facilitate development in Kowen and Bungendore. How the light rail or perhaps a bus rapid transport alternative is to be funded would need to be determined. 

Demonstrating HSR or improvements to existing rail infrastructure are a better use of funds than alternatives will be a complex and difficult task given the state of government finances.

Why do I have a feeling of deja vu?

Mike Quirk is a former NCDC and ACT government planner.