“The Liberals have to stop trying to win 13 seats alone in the ACT. But they might be in with a chance to secure them if they borrow from Labor’s strategy and look to take some risks in deal making,” writes political columnist ANDREW HUGHES.

Recent opinion polls paint a bleak picture for the Liberal brand right now around Australia. 

Newspoll and Redbridge polls are alarming for how they provide evidence that Gen Z and Gen Y voters don’t identify with the party in anywhere near the numbers required for the Liberals to be a serious contender this decade in most states. 

For Gen Z voters, first preference votes are hovering around the 20 per cent mark. Gen Y isn’t much better. There are those who may say: “Yes, but the youth have always identified more with the progressives than the conservatives”. 

This may be true to those aged up to around the early twenties, but after that, when the career path starts to be chased, aspiration should take over. 

Sussan Ley herself said in her first National Press Club address as leader that the party has failed to offer aspiration. 

I’d go further and say they fail to offer aspiration in not just policies, but also people and the party brand itself. For now. 

For now because the Liberal brand still runs a close second to Labor on primary vote overall, most polls having a gap of only five per cent between the two.

The polls though point to another alarming trend for the Liberals and, in some ways, for Labor, tool. That is, inner and middle metropolitan areas are now identifying as being progressive. 

These are our most populous areas, so with the highest concentration of seats in most systems, and essentially they become a preference oligopoly for progressive parties and candidates.

The Liberals are effectively locked out. Labor though has to fight it out with progressive independents and the Greens, who collectively can sometimes outpoll Labor on primary votes. 

But it is not all doom and gloom for brand blue. Outer metropolitan areas are leaning Liberal, largely driven by cost-of-living and law-and-order issues. And these are where the highest population growth is to be found. 

An electoral system such as the ACT’s doesn’t help the Liberals win government. In fact, they are unlikely to based on past results. And it’s the same with Labor. 

And that’s what election result after election result indicates: the Liberals have to stop trying to win 13 seats alone. But they might be in with a chance to secure them if they borrow from Labor’s strategy and look to take some risks in deal making to get to the magic 13 instead. 

The swings required to get to 13 are simply not going to happen in the way required. What Table 1 highlights is that in 2024 Labor were not the first party of choice in three out of five electorates in Canberra. 

In each of those electorates the Liberals need to poll at least 50 per cent primary to get to three members, and then still win two in the others. This is highly unlikely to happen. 

The drift to the progressive centrists is now a trend and one likely to stay, so another reason they will struggle to get to 13. 

So what must they do to get into government? 

Firstly, stop thinking success lies in being Labor light: three parties of diversity rolled into one. The broad church of Howard thinking. John Howard’s last election win was 2004. 

Times have moved on. We have already seen the election of the first federal politician born this century. Gen X’s time is rapidly approaching an end date in the next decade. 

Next, Labor’s strategy is not just about diversity, but also about winning or retaining government with a low primary vote. Now that’s a lesson for the Liberals right there. 

In Canberra, Labor has not won a majority in an election since… 2004. The last Howard win. And yet they’ve been in government for 24 years since. How? Standing hard for core beliefs. 

The Liberals need to get back on the front foot on their core beliefs that resonate so well with people: law and order, cost of living, SME’s, aspirational ladders and a candidate pool representative of the aspirational electorate. Bleed blue. 

Doing this may allow for more freedom on the progressive front. Instead of trying to be progressive, and usually failing, they could instead support issues with a party that is similar to what Jeremy Rockliff has just done in Tasmania. Trump did something similar with his 2024 victory in the US. 

It shows innovation, less risk and uncertainty and acknowledgment that progressive values exist and are supported by those who used to support them. 

The Liberals need to stop thinking about winning 13, but instead start thinking of getting to 13. 

Dr Andrew Hughes lectures at the ANU Research School of Management, where he specialises in political marketing.