“Pocock, Emerson, Carrick, Price, Vardy, all feeding each other and keeping each other relevant. A neat, independent political eco-system.” ANDREW HUGHES says the independents brought the political warmth over winter. 

As hoped, the independents brought the warmth this winter. And not just here in the ACT, either. 

The ones in Tasmania have really shown how much political strategy is changing in Australia. 

Tasmania has had it all in 2025 for the pure political strategy junkies: no-confidence motions, an election, party leaders putting it all on the line, and losing, and a government that doesn’t have the support of the majority of the lower house in which it sits. Phew! 

The independents there went to the next level though. They split on who should be in government. One was offered the chance to be Treasurer in a Labor government, another sided with the Liberals, and others hated them all. None of that majority progressive Labor brand support as witnessed here late last year.  

Voters loved it. In an omen for the 2028 election here, especially considering they use nearly the same voting system as us, independents got up in every electorate bar one. The leading independent candidate, Peter George, even outpolled the leaders of the Greens and Labor.  

After the result came the brand reward for their voters: zero compromise hard politics. ACT Labor would have had nightmares because these independents helped sink Labor leader Dean Winter’s chances of forming government, and likely his career, too.  

Maybe they were replicating the stellar way Rosalie Woodruff, Greens leader in Tasmania, played them all other than the Liberals. It was political bluff calling and game playing done to levels worthy of any seen anywhere in the nation this year. Rare do we see a party leader like this, absolutely uncompromising but also knowing how it was going to play out in doing so. And, yes, I’m very impressed. 

But back to the independents on our local scene. Winter has been kind to them. Very kind. David Pocock is yet again proving his impact across a wide range of issues local and national. His work locally on the issues at ANU has been impressive, but especially compassionate to so many. 

Nationally, his critiques in keeping the government somewhat accountable on reforms to the NDIS (94 reasons why that’s difficult) and also on issues such as housing and climate, have kept his name at the top of mind of many a progressive voter. 

His leadership and voice on these issues isn’t just noise – it helps the other independents nationally in their own political objectives. His impact and reach assists other independents to get impact. It helps keep a grassroots network and movement alive against the resources and opportunities the major parties offer to their true believers. 

This is what the Liberals need to be aware of. The metropolitan moderate progressive base they need to win back is now two elections into identifying with independent candidates. 

By election four (around 2031) they will start telling their kids who they identify with. And Labor can’t relax either, Pocock pushed Katy Gallagher to preferences, and Hannah Vardy, like Jessie Price in Bean, would be relishing a second chance in 2028.

Independents don’t have a balance of power 

However, a storm cell on the horizon is numbers. The independents don’t have a balance of power. They don’t have that ultimate legislative influence. Noise can get you some outcomes, but Labor holds all the cards and has all the keys. Being able to actually influence legislation in a way that can be leveraged publicly is difficult. 

And this is nearly replicated locally. Thomas Emerson is doing a great job. He speaks well and connects with many in the community. He is one of the most active politicians I’ve known. You’d think the election was still on with how many meet-and-greets he does every week. 

Fiona Carrick, too, has done some great work on issues such as health and education, along with constant pressure on a public transport project that actually increases travel times for its users. 

Yet they don’t have the numbers. And they, unlike some of their counterparts in Tasmania, did not take the uncompromising hard path of zero support if there was zero compromise. Maybe that’s been the right path, maybe we all find out in 2028.  

No doubt though that Emerson’s 2024 positive campaign inspired many. From a small base he not just got elected, but also created a decent movement. Pocock, Emerson, Carrick, Price, Vardy, all feeding each other and keeping each other relevant. A neat independent political eco-system. 

In 2028 the difficult work being done now, when outcomes are hard to quantify, may reap rewards similar to what happened in Tasmania. 

Ultimately, this is where they know their numbers do count. Where this winter counted. Where the movement became the norm.

Dr Andrew Hughes lectures at the ANU Research School of Management, where he specialises in political marketing.