“Will the ACT government have an epiphany and make planning decisions based on evidence?” wonders planning columnist MIKE QURIK.

Urban consolidation policies aimed at increasing the share of housing demand accommodated in established areas have been central to Canberra’s planning since the early 1990s. 

The success of the policies is reflected in the reduction in greenfields development and the increase, between 1996 and 2021, in occupied dwellings (predominantly apartments) in north and south Canberra from 23,400 to 36,900 and the associated increase in the population from 61,500 to 92,800.  

The policy’s most recent iteration, 70 per cent of housing demand to be accommodated in established areas, is supported by a land-release program directing that multi-unit dwellings will be 89 per cent of new dwelling supply. 

The increased emphasis was made with little analysis of its economic, social or environmental consequences or housing preferences. 

There is a significant undersupply of detached dwellings as reflected in the increased price differential between multi-unit and detached dwellings, the high demand for the limited supply of blocks released by ballot by the Suburban Land Agency, the increased development of car-dependent detached blocks in surrounding NSW and the high prices for serviced land, in the order of $600,000 to $800,000, in Denman Prospect, Jacka and Whitlam. Such prices are unaffordable to many households. 

Evidence of the detached house preference of many Canberra households is found in the 2015 Housing Choices and Community Study undertaken by Winton Sustainable Research Strategies. More recent research by Infrastructure Victoria (Our Home Choices Report, 2023) identified a “notional ideal home” shared by many households – a three or four-bedroom detached house with secure parking, in an established suburb close to family and friends.

In a survey, 6000 households were asked about the type of home they would choose if they had to move, factoring in current house prices and their household budget. 

Most households strongly preferred detached houses over apartments, particularly those who are looking to buy a home. Location, the number of bedrooms, and the number of car spaces also factor into housing decisions, but were found to be less important than the type of home. 

Low-to-moderate income households could not afford the “ideal home”. 

Westpac’s 2024 Home Ownership Report similarly revealed “wanting to live in a new area” was a key driver of housing plans for a quarter of Australians. 

The successful development of a compact city requires a Canberra study of housing preferences to obtain an understanding of what people are looking for when they buy a home and how these needs can be met in established suburbs.

Key influences on decisions are price and design. 

High-rise apartments have lower land cost but have higher construction costs per dwelling. Dual occupancies and townhouses have high per dwelling land costs and, in most established areas, cannot be developed for less than $1,000,000 per unit. 

Low-rise apartments, with moderate land and construction costs per dwelling, could be the housing type most likely to meet the housing needs of many households currently seeking a detached dwelling and those with low-to-moderate incomes.  

However, the design of most apartments has to improve. Too many are poorly sound-proofed, have inadequate storage, inflexible layouts and too few bedrooms. 

A guide highlighting quality design, supported by faster approval of consistent developments and demonstration projects would assist the development of appropriate dwellings and a reduction in costs.  

Requiring redevelopments to have a minimum block size, along the lines of the 0.4 hectares required in the Kingston/Griffith redevelopment area in the 1970s, would facilitate more flexible designs that minimise the loss of vegetation, achieve better privacy, solar access and parking outcomes. 

Better built, higher-quality units would increase the attractiveness of higher-density dwellings to more households and assist community acceptability. 

Analysis is needed to determine whether such requirements will result in the construction of sufficient, well-designed, family friendly and affordable dwellings. 

The construction of far more social housing is needed to address the extreme level of unmet housing need in Canberra. The construction of such housing, incorporating improved designs, could be facilitated by the diversion of labour and funds from the far-from-urgent light rail extension.  

For the environmental impacts of Canberra’s development to be minimised, higher-density dwellings need to be more attractive, appropriate and affordable to a wider range of households. 

Until this is achieved there will be an ongoing demand for new detached dwellings. 

Analysis is needed to identify the costs and benefits of potential greenfields areas and of housing preferences. 

Will the ACT government have an epiphany and make decisions based on evidence?

Mike Quirk is a former NCDC and ACT government planner.