“It is good to see the Liberals under Castley playing more to their perceived policy strengths: the economy, spending, weaknesses of Labor in government, and a leader who is a lightning rod for the base,” writes political columnist ANDREW HUGHES.

It’s been one year now since Labor, with the support of all but the Liberals, were returned to government. 

Labor, despite a sketchy start to year one of this term, are in the box seat for another term after this one. 

Yet Labor also know that the electoral tide is turning. They only won two out of five electorates on first preferences in 2024, none south of the arboretum. They only finished one seat ahead of the Liberals. 

Yet in some electorates, such as Brindabella, there was a clear generational change happening with voters as candidates such as Labor’s Caitlin Tough outpolled older competitors. Independent Thomas Emerson is another notable example. If you don’t give the voters change, then they will often seek it out from those that do. 

This is Labor’s challenge, to find that balance between experience, and the next emerging generation of politicians from Gen Y and Z. 

Into the mix of this is the Liberals. Leanne Castley has, like Labor, had a rocky start to the first year as leader.

There are clearly still divisions in the ranks with Elizabeth Lee and Peter Cain both on the outer for different reasons. There isn’t a sense of unity that oppositions need to say to the electorate: We are ready to govern and govern effectively. 

And listening tour aside, there is still not enough work being done on the policy front, engagement and communications. Basically, the brand-building operation needs to move away from awareness to identification. A nice contrast is how independents Emerson and Fiona Carrick are performing. 

But if you are a Liberal supporter, then Castley’s op-ed piece (“‘We are drawing a line in the sand’, pledges Castley”, CN October 23) provides hope of pressure being applied to Labor in areas where the pain is being felt by many of a lopsided budget, heavy on infrastructure spend, especially one that’s more aspirational than requirement. 

‘We are drawing a line in the sand’, pledges Castley

If Labor is tired, then the opposition, by its nature, needs to be the contrast so voters can see that difference. 

It’s still in build mode, though. Policies are to be released early in 2026. So maybe early 2026 is the line-in-the-sand moment.

This ambiguity in messaging needs to be fixed. It may be minor but in elections where just five per cent usually decides outcomes, minor makes major differences. 

But it is good to see the Liberals under Castley playing more to their perceived policy strengths: the economy, spending, weaknesses of Labor in government, and a leader who is a lightning rod for the base. 

Castley’s points on how they will manage better are clear, direct and touch on issues most Canberrans have seen a falling away of standards.

If I was her comms team I’d be putting a lot more effort into this – make it clear through weekly announcements about where things have failed, but also how they could be better under the Liberals. 

Clear differentiation is critical to the momentum shift they need to get higher numbers than Labor in the Assembly, although 13 seats is perhaps the dream and less reality. 

Being just 12 months in for Castley, too, you could forgive the constant reminder of her background. That does need to become more background though than foreground as the term goes into year two and beyond. 

Why? Alternative government = alternative chief minister, so the comms team focus here should be building contrast with the current chief minister, while at the same time underlining likability and competence. 

I would want to know that an alternative chief minister can be across everything from street lights being out in Charnwood to the implementation and policy complexity that make up government in the 2020s. 

This area is where the policy announcements in 2026 will be the real line-in-the-sand truth moments. The question will be asked – as leader, are you aware of how this policy will be implemented? The cost on the budget? And, critically, how it will make the lives of Canberrans better. 

Honesty over perfection is a good guide – not every leader can be across those details, nor should they, that’s where the team comes in. It’s why unity is so important. For most voters, it is one of the most important metrics on who can govern effectively. 

As 2025 comes to a close in politics, 2026 is about to open wide up. Castley does give the Liberals real hope for the years ahead. 

Perhaps next year will end with her talking about how, in every grain of sand, a story waits to be unfolded, and we will see more of someone who aspires to be the leader of our territory. 

Dr Andrew Hughes lectures at the ANU Research School of Management, where he specialises in political marketing.