“The increasing share of development being privately initiated increases the uncertainty about when and where development will occur,” writes planning columnist MIKE QUIRK. 

The recently released ACT Population Projections 2025 to 2065 provides projections at the ACT, district and suburb levels.

It identifies a 2060 population of 761,500, slightly lower than the 784,000 projected in the 2022 to 2060 projections.

The projections are derived from assumptions of fertility, mortality, net interstate migration and net overseas migration (NOM).

The assumptions at the ACT level reflect a reasonable interpretation of current demographic trends and are clearly stated.

The future level of population could be lower or higher than projected. 

NOM is the main driver of growth and its level could be affected by factors including pandemics, federal government decisions to increase or lower NOM to obtain economic benefits or to reduce environmental impacts and housing and infrastructure shortfalls.

The level of population growth in the ACT can be volatile. Major downturns were experienced from constrained federal spending in the Fraser and the early Howard governments. Projections made at the time reflected low growth expectations. 

The 2003 projections said the population of Canberra would peak at 388,000 in 2031. 

Since the early 2000s, apart from 2020-21 and 2021-22 when covid border restrictions reduced growth, growth has been consistently strong.

Figure 1, showing past population growth and that projected in the 2022 projections, demonstrates the volatility in net migration. 

The responsibility of the ACT government is to manage anticipated growth by providing the necessary infrastructure, services, land and housing while optimising environmental, social and economic outcomes. The projections at the district and suburb level assist in the management of this growth. 

Table 1 compares the population projected by district in 2035 and 2060 under the 2022 and 2025 Projections

Focusing on 2035, as the 10 year period crucial to infrastructure planning, reveals major differences in the projected population in several districts.

The projected population is lower in Molonglo (-9218) and north Canberra (-11,597); but higher in Tuggeranong (+ 9901), Woden (+6184) and Weston Creek (+2940). 

The changes are said to be a result of “dynamic” modelling that better accounts for urban infill, different rates of ageing and migration in suburbs over the projection period. 

Given projections are a key input in the preparation of multi-billion dollar infrastructure programs, it is essential they have a sound analytical base. 

Despite the improved methodology, the 2025 district and suburb projections are problematic.

The increasing share of development being privately initiated increases the uncertainty about when and where development will occur. This makes it more difficult to estimate the demand for schools, health, transport, housing and other facilities and services. 

Methodological improvements are needed before they can be used with confidence. A review would strive to develop improved understandings of demographic change at the suburban level and housing preferences; and how these preferences translate into the demand for housing.

Compact city policies, major inputs to the district and suburban projections, need regular review to ensure the claimed environmental, economic and social benefits are being realised. There could be benefits in increasing the share of detached dwellings to meet housing preferences and in focusing redevelopment in areas where there is both demand for housing and spare infrastructure capacity.

The government needs to ensure planning and infrastructure programs have sufficient flexibility to respond to potential population volatility and social, economic, technological and behavioural changes. 

Mike Quirk is a former NCDC and ACT government planner.