“There are some interesting independent groups running in 2024 that seem to be pulling together decent campaigns, despite how hard it is for them to be elected,” writes political columnist ANDREW HUGHES.

It’s always interesting to me how people see and define independents.

Colin Garland is, for mine, the best independent politician in the 2020 era. Who? Google him. On a budget of $3000 he just got elected to the lower house in Tasmania. 

Seventh time lucky, but he really was independent as much as anyone can be and may ever be in Australian politics. 

In Canberra, the independents are sometimes independent in name only. There are some interesting independent groups running in 2024 that seem to be pulling together decent campaigns, despite how hard it is for them to be elected. All should take note of some of the lessons from the 2016 campaign of my ANU colleague, Kim Huynh, who I feel has run the best independent campaign locally. 

Who could forget, and I don’t think he does, those famous topless corflutes strung out like fairy lights along Gungahlin Drive and major roads of Belconnen? Yet his campaign was also smart for its policy strategy, focused on just a few key major areas. 

Ultimately, being a true lone independent, he missed out. And so did we as I think he would have made a good MLA.

Back to the future. In 2024 there seems to be a plethora of independents going after a very slim slice of the pie, perhaps 10 per cent of the primary vote count across the ACT. 

I feel that will be stronger in Kurrajong (Civic), Murrumbidgee (Weston Creek/Molonglo), and Yerrabi (Gungahlin) where opportunity awaits without former Liberal leader Alistair Coe running. 

It would be an error to think these independents are variations of teal, because they aren’t, and they may not even support a change in government, but more a change in policy. 

One example of this was the housing policy announcement by the Strong Independents. The doubling in the social housing build, necessary but costly, is more Labor/Green than Liberal. So maybe they will sway towards a status quo if elected, but with influence on policy. 

Then there is the Belco Party. Some interesting policies, especially on law and order, means they are naturally leaning towards the right and therefore the Libs. Given Bill Stefaniak has also announced his candidature for them again then it’s only to be expected. 

Independents for Canberra are doing well, a slick website helping, and likewise the performance of lead candidate Thomas Emerson. Emerson is likely to push the Greens all the way in Kurrajong. 

In Murrumbidgee, the star performer of ACT independents this decade, Fiona Carrick, is looking good to take a spot, although my crystal ball says either from Labor or the Greens. 

Carrick may not have the professional website of her rivals, but she does have some good policies, such as in education and public transport, designed for her key markets in Weston Creek and Molonglo. She got seven per cent last time, and with her networks in the Weston Creek area, and lessons learnt from 2020, should head higher than that come October. 

The other interesting thing about the independents all over Canberra is the smart ones have heeded what Kim Huynh didn’t in 2016: run as a party or face trying to be elected off a primary vote in the high single or low double figures. Why make life difficult? So most independents won’t be. They will be running as parties and not lone independents as many of us think. 

Recent events in the US have shed another lesson for them that some are starting to realise they need to follow. That is the power of a leader combined with a good narrative. Kamala Harris set a global record for donations in 24 hours because of that. 

Independents need to be parties to stand a chance at success. And one of the key reasons why they often don’t get up is lack of a leader narrative matched to policy and party. 

We may see that change in October as well. Emerson leads the Independents for Canberra, Peter Strong the Strong Independents, and Carrick likely the Carrick Independents. They know that without a lead candidate, they will lack the cut through of the majors. 

For nearly all of the serious independent contenders running in the ACT we are seeing the drift from the lone-candidate model to the embrace of the party one. 

This may very well be the key to electoral success they desperately needed to unlock a seat in the Assembly come October 19. 

Dr Andrew Hughes is a lecturer in marketing with the Research School of Management at ANU where he specialises in political marketing and advertising.